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Hydrologic Outlook issued March 13 at 4:58PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MIESFAPXThe final Spring 2025 Flood Outlook for Northern Michiganindicates a near average probability of flooding due to snow meltwithin major eastern Upper and northern Lower Michigan riverbasins. This represents a decrease in probabilities due to snowmelt during the first half of MarchThis outlook covers Chippewa and Mackinac counties in eastern UpperMichigan which includes the Pine River Basin...and the northern halfof Lower Michigan encompassing Au Sable...Boardman...Manistee...Rifle...and Tobacco River basins.The first table below lists the probabilities of reaching flood stage(minor flooding)...as well as moderate and major flood levels for thesix forecast points within the Gaylord National Weather Service officeHydrologic Service Area. Current (CS) and historical (HS) probabilitiesof exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages are listedfor the valid time period. CS values indicate the probability ofreaching a flood category based on current conditions.HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category basedon historical or normal conditions.When the value of CS is greater than HS: the probability of exceedingthat level is higher than normal.When the value of CS is less than HS: the probability of exceedingthat level is lower than normal....Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...Valid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025: Current and Historical: Chances of Exceeding: Flood Categories: as a Percentage (%)Categorical :Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate MajorLocation Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---:Manistee RiverSherman 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 16 12 <5 <5 <5 <5:Boardman RiverMayfield--Brown B 7.0 8.0 9.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5:Au Sable RiverRed Oak 7.0 8.0 9.0 : 5 12 <5 <5 <5 <5:Rifle RiverSterling 6.0 11.0 13.0 : 33 64 <5 <5 <5 <5:Pine RiverRudyard 17.0 19.0 20.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5:Tobacco RiverBeaverton 12.0 14.0 17.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5LegendCS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)HS = Historical SimulationFT = FeetDeparture from normal of reaching flood stage is the difference betweenthe current projected chance for reaching flood stage (CS) and theclimatological normal (HS). For example...the Manistee River nearSherman...with a Flood Stage of 15 feet...has a 16 percent chanceof reaching or exceeding flood stage. This is 4 percentage pointsabove normal. During the 90 day period listed...the typical probabilityof the Manistee River near Sherman reaching flood stage is 12 percent.The next table shows the chance that a particular river location couldrise above the listed stages in the specified 90 day period (high flowforecast):...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...Chance of Exceeding Stagesat Specific LocationsValid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------:Manistee RiverSherman 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.9 15.2 15.9:Boardman RiverMayfield--Brown B 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.8 5.2 5.4:Au Sable RiverRed Oak 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0:Rifle RiverSterling 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.2 6.4 7.5 8.5:Pine RiverRudyard 7.9 8.0 8.6 10.2 11.8 13.5 14.3:Tobacco RiverBeaverton 4.2 4.8 5.7 6.2 6.9 7.8 8.7In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate theprobability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for thevalid time period....Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...Chance of Falling Below Stagesat Specific LocationsValid Period: 03/17/2025 - 06/15/2025Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------:Manistee RiverSherman 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8:Boardman RiverMayfield--Brown B 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1:Au Sable RiverRed Oak 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8:Rifle RiverSterling 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1:Pine RiverRudyard 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1:Tobacco RiverBeaverton 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2Spring flood outlooks are routinely issued in February and March inorder to give advance notice of possible flooding. The long rangeprobabilistic outlooks given in the above tables contain forecastvalues that are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30or more years of climatological data...and incorporated currentriver levels...soil moisture conditions...snow water equivalentvalues...as well as 30 and 90 day outlooks for temperature andprecipitation provided by the NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center.Actual river crests will differ from this outlook if futureconditions differ significantly from forecast conditions...or ifice jams develop....Current Conditions...Recent rain and snow melt have reduced the likelihood going forwardof additional flooding due to melting snow...especially acrossnorthern Lower Michigan.Precipitation through the Summer months (June-August) wasgenerally from 75 to 125 percent of normal. Across eastern UpperMichigan June was the wettest month of the summer withprecipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things started todry out in July with below normal rainfall though most areasreceived at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A similartrend was noted in August. Precipitation during the Fall months(September-November) started out below normal for September (lessthan 50 percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent ofnormal) and October (25 to 75 percent of normal). But Novemberprecipitation was above normal in most locations...more than 200percent of normal across northern Chippewa county and in thehigher terrain of eastern Antrim/western Otsego/northwest Kalkaskacounties mainly due to a significant lake effect snow eventduring Thanksgiving weekend.Precipitation for the Winter (December through February) featuredquite a bit of snowfall for the lake effect snowbelts. TheGaylord NWS office set a new record snowfall for the winter of149.5 inches. Sault Ste. Marie recorded its second snowiest winteron record (138.9 inches)...Houghton Lake its third snowiestwinter (72.2 inches) and Traverse City tied its fourth snowiestwinter (125.1 inches). From a liquid equivalent precipitationstandpoint...Sault Ste. Marie recorded its 7th wettest winter onrecord (9.94 inches/3.42 inches above normal).Snow water equivalent in the snow pack across eastern Upper Michiganis generally 3 to 4 inches across Mackinac and southeast Chippewacounty...and from 6 to 9 inches across the remainder of Chippewacounty. Across northern Lower snow water equivalent is less than 2inches in areas that still have snow cover...and 1 to 3 inchesacross areas of northwest Lower that still have snow cover.Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan.Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are near normal thanks torecent rain-on-snowmelt.D2 (Severe) Drought conditions continue across parts of Leelanau...Alpena...Benzie...Oscoda...Alcona...Manistee...Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac counties.Moderate (D1) Drought conditions also continue across parts ofPresque Isle...Montmorency...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Wexford...Missaukee...and Roscommon counties....Weather Outlook...The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Centervalid for the period of March 18-9 2025 is indicating a highlikelihood for above normal temperatures...and leaning towardabove normal precipitation.The outlook for the Spring (March through May) indicates nodiscernible trend with regard to temperatures (equal probabilitiesfor above...normal...and below normal temperatures)...and a 40 to 50percent chance of above normal precipitation....Additional Information...This is the final Spring Flood Outlook for 2025. Long rangeprobabilistic outlooks such as those given in the above tables areissues during the last week of each month throughout the year.Visit water.noaa.gov/wfo/apx for more river information...includinggraphs of the probabilistic information given in the above tables...the latest observed conditions on northern Michigan streams...aswell as analyses of precipitation and snowfall.

National Weather Service